Outright Rugby

Super Rugby Round 4 market recap

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The last 3 weekends have offered a glimpse of what each Super Rugby side has to offer in 2013. It is obvious however that both slow and fast starts should be expected and that the log will only “right-itself” to give a fairly accurate long-term forecast after 6 to 7 rounds.


So where’s the current value for you…

Outright market (Underlined – a very good draw to round 10):


Chiefs 9/2 – 10/10 log points (LPs). Boasting a work-ethic dynamic that is incredibly effective can you see this side missing the semis? We’d be surprised if they don’t make the final.

Brumbies 6/1 – 13/14 LPs. Founded on unsung star quality players this is a very sound side. What effect will the Lions tour have with all Wallaby players currently unavailable for round 17 but possibly other rounds too?

Crusaders 6/1 – 4/9 log points. A side with immense talent but currently under pressure and lacking mojo. Have the Chiefs stolen most of their MVP’s? Is it likely that they will find an unstoppable line of form?

Sharks 6/1 – 8/10 log points. The strongest pack in Super Rugby paired with a lethal backline when on form. Inconsistency can be fatal to title hopes however. Have the Sharks displayed a changed demeanour in 2013?

Stormers 7/1 – 1/10 LPs. Same start as Sharks last season. Possibly the greatest depth of any Super Rugby side. When will their new signings click? Are there signs of an added attacking element to their play this season?

Blues 11/1 – 10/10 log points. Tournament unknowns. Their phenomenal team spirit and grit should not be ignored. Will success get to their heads? Do they boast the fire-power to make an impact at play-off level?

Highlanders 12/1 – 4/9 LPs. With possibly the best pre-season signings a side with great potential. Are they going to gel soon? Will they be a tough task for most Super Rugby sides (other than the immortal Chiefs)?

Reds 12/1 – 8/15 log points. With fire-power, quality and talent but no depth can this side safely navigate the 2013 season? Early indications seem promising. Are we at Outright Rugby underrating their chances?

Waratahs 16/1 – 8/14 log points. A side of great experience featuring a new coaching regime. Will they find the intensity and urgency to get results? Or is this a side of aging stars?

Bulls 18/1 – 9/10 LPs. A sound side that appear from the outside to have a new-found hunger and drive. Was last season the foundation that this side needed? Are they value considering the start which the Stormers have had?

Hurricanes 28/1 – 1/10 LPs. An inconsistent side offering great potential. Will this slow start prevent success this season? Is their great draw to round ten going to achieve the momentum that they require to make the playoffs?


From our archives here’s some pre-season analysis, discussion and prediction that you might be interested in, to see how our initial forecasts are panning out. Please note that prices stated were accurate at the time of writing but would have shortened or drifted by now.

3 sides that we fancied:





1 medium-priced side that we did not fancy:



Analysis of two popular opening markets:



Some pre-season statistical research:






Make those $$$$!