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Outright Rugby

Reds v.s Hurricanes Super Rugby preview

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Venu: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.

Kick-off Fri 1 Mar: 20:20 (Local)

1 Mar NZ. 22:20 (Auck)

1 Mar RSA 12:20

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia).

Weather: Warm with a slight breeze and a strong possibility of rainfall.

 

Reds: 15. Aidan Toua, 14. Dom Shipperley, 13. Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12. Ben Tapuai (vc), 11. Digby Ioane, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Ben Lucas, 8. Jake Schatz, 7. Liam Gill, 6. Eddie Quirk, 5. Ed O’Donoghue, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. James Slipper (c), 2. Saia Faingaa, 1. Greg Holmes. Bench:16. James Hanson,17. Albert Anae, 18. Adam Wallace-Harrison, 19. Radike Samo, 20. Nick Frisby, 21. Mike Harris, 22. Luke Morahan. Injured: James Horwill, Jarrad Butler.

 

Hurricanes: 15. Andre Taylor, 14. Alapati Leiua, 13. Conrad Smith (c), 12. Tim Bateman, 11. Julian Savea, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. TJ Perenara, 8. Brad Shields, 7. Karl Lowe, 6. Victor Vito, 5. Jason Eaton, 4. Jeremy Thrush, 3. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2. Dane Coles, 1. Ben Franks. Bench:16. Motu Matu’u ,17. Reggie Goodes,18. James Broadhurst,19. Faifili Levave,20. Chris Smylie,21. James Marshall,22. Reynold Lee-Lo. Injured: Blade Thomson, Eric Sione, Jack Lam, Mark Reddish.

 

Previous results:  

Reds: Home 41-35 v.s Blues

Home 8-20 v.s Chiefs

Away 6 – 24 Brumbies

Home 25 – 17 Waratahs (most recent fixture).

 

Hurricanes:  Away 27 – 26 Crusaders

Away 47 – 45 Rebels

Away 21 – 25 Chiefs

Home 20 – 34 Blues (most recent fixture).

 

Betting: Outright: 4/11 v.s 2/1.

Handicap: -5 v.s +5.

 

Rainfall can always level a playing field and due to the nature of weather we will only be sure of its resulting influence come kickoff. As such all bets should be left until the last minute. The Hurricanes are coming off the back of their worst performance of the season whilst the Reds found some form against the Tahs last weekend. Of the two sides the Hurricanes’ form line is still the stronger yet travelling to Brisbane is never an easy task. The Reds bench has some star quality and it should not be overlooked. The Hurricanes are however likely to be the more desperate of the two sides. All of this bills for an even match-up.

 

Prediction: Upset meter is on high if the predicted rain does bucket down. We wouldn’t take the 4/11 on the Reds with that possibility in mind. Should be a close match which can go either way.

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  • jamochampion@gmail.com

    In your opinion, is it true that in games where there is substantial rainfall, the total overall points scored in the game are less? Where im heading is, if you know thee is going to be alot of rain, do you bet on a low overall score?

  • jamochampion@gmail.com

    What does everyone else also think?

  • http://twitter.com/outrightrugby Outright Rugby

    Great point Jamo. That is definitely the case. Also when bookies set the handicaps (on the Wednesday for example), they factor in a long term whether forecast but cannot be certain that it will rain. As such their pricing may reflect the influence of some wet but not pouring conditions. As such, the plus handicap comes in more often when it rains really hard and the underdog also wins more often when it rains really hard. Keep up the punting!!