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Outright Rugby

Can Morne Steyn be beaten in the top South African Conference points scorer market?

January 18, 2013

On it

On it

Morne Steyn. A South African great. 2012 was his poorest season to date on the Springbok front however Heyneke Meyer should have “rested him” sooner that he could find his form quicker, at a lower level of intensity, as all other international coaches would have done. That said he’s top of the board in the betting in the top South African points scorers market. Here’s some homework for you compliments of OutrightRugby.

 

In 2010 Morne was unstoppable as he KILLED all opposition in this market. In horse-racing terms it  was the equivalent of a 12 length victory! He tallied 211 points in the Super Rugby season at an average of 21.1 points per match (the Lions only scored 59 more points than that the entire season)! Coming in second was Naas Olivier with 104 points, less than half of Morne’s total!

 

In 2011 the running was far closer. Steyn again took the honours in an evenly staggered finish accumulating 213 points at 13.31 per match with Lambie’s 193 points at 13.79 per match in second, Eberson then following with 179 points at 11.93 per match, Grant coming in with 142 points at 14.2 per match and Jantjies closing the major runners with 102 points at 8.5 points per match. A one length victory this time for Morne.

2012 and Morne took the honours yet again with 231 points at an average of 12.83 points per match. Johan Goosen who featured in far fewer matches commendably came in second with 145 points due to his incredibly high scoring rate of 16.11 points per match. Third was Peter Grant with 144 points at 9 per game, 4th Pat Lambie who tallied 141 points at 10.85 per match and 5th Jantjies with 120 points at 8.57 per match. Morne again dominating in these figures with a bunched up chasing pack indicating the gap between him and mere mortals in 2012. This time an 8 length victory.

 

The market is as follows:

Steyn 4/5

Lambie 3/1 – Ever so consistent. Will be there or there abouts.

Goosen 4/1 – injury prone but with the ability to dominate the running.

Grant 7/1 – will he start enough matches with Japanese commitment and Jantjies snapping at his heels? Surely a non-runner..

Catrakilis 20/1 – will the Southern Kings earn more than 75 penalties in the 2013 Super Rugby season let alone within range…. no hope.

 

We are left thinking that 2013 is surely going to unfold as a 3 horse race but with Steyn’s pedigree will he be too difficult to beat?

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  • http://www.facebook.com/andrew.b.robarts Andrew Bunty Robarts

    The key question could be whether Goosen will go the entire season without injury? If he doesnt get injured, he could definitely be favourite? The only question is how many shots he will get at goal if the Cheetahs team doesnt fire. But those odds I reckon its worth a punt. With a strong Sharks squad and Lambie taking over as first choice kicker (from Michalak) he will surely be a points machine and so would be my pick!

    • http://twitter.com/outrightrugby Outright Rugby

      Nice point. Keep the posts coming! Goosen has shown that he scores points even in a weak Cheetahs side due to his immense talent so that should not be a concern. Injury however is a greater threat. If he sustains a moderate injury to miss 3 or 4 matches and then play’s 11 or 12 matches to Steyn or Lambie’s 15 (if all 3 are rested for one match) he could well still tally around 180 points but we’ve seen time and time again that it takes +195 points to win this market. Without injury he’s a massive threat.

      Lambie is likely to have a bumper season. We all know he’s Plumtree’s first choice 10 and kicker and is likely to be given the entire season in that position. Also consider that the Sharks are now a massive force in Super Rugby and that he may get 30-40 points in the playoff matches that Steyn and Goosen miss out on. Think long and hard about the baby-faced assassin. Rock and roll!

      • http://twitter.com/outrightrugby Outright Rugby

        It has just been announced that only regular season games apply in this market and as such points scored in playoff markets will not count. Find that winner!